Friday, March 30, 2012

FB vs G


a. In the short term, FB does not lose the number of users. But it will lose market share. My prediction - 50-100 million people will benefit from G in a year. Definitely, they will not depart from the SE, but it will affect the depth of view and FB on the amount of time spent by users on FB.
2. What's even more unpleasant - FB will lose market share, which is much more important. Loss of market share instantly on impact assessment of the company. Market share in this case - is against FB. The number of users is not reduced, but the same users who have an account in G will be considered by the market. FB will put pressure on the potential G, the entrance is so low that it is indeed a real threat. In fact, all users of Google's products are already in G separates them is only one checkbox in the settings (when they come out of closed beta ). This is also th.
3. ... FB has grown in such a machine, which became very strong centrifugal tendencies. A tool for creating an isolated community is not there - it gives a great chance to do more or less all the major players. And then Microsoft made ​​the wrong bet. Now he can not play against FB with a share of it, on the other hand, they now own the asset, which will gradually lose its value.
4. While the thought of the FB -to-market Facebookphone, the market in one day, several tens of millions of G Phone in one night. This is a very serious blow. Serious, obscene.
5. Now and services. In the G from the start there was a lot of services, the number of content, the number of users and degree of maturity is adult. FB to them as to Shanghai on the trolley. This is about my Youtube, Picassa, Google aps, Blogger, and especially Gtalk and Gmail, on the market are trying to get into FB. Not everyone remembers about such things as Google Voice and a bunch of other aces up its sleeve.
6. Against this background, FB and remains under pressure Linkedin and Twitter, which did not release their niches. And all attempts to climb up there until the FB does not bring results.
My diagnosis? . Is there such a thing as a ...

Update: Colleagues, I am not saying that Google turn out, I'm not saying that Google will kill FB. I say that Google broke the illusion SE, they reign in the market. And now the FB will be faced with a serious and stiff competition from a strong and experienced player.

Update 2: Actually need to stock up on popcorn - at FB is a very strong portfolio of patents, and in this field, one hundred % is not a fight.

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